Rest Day & Coach's Analysis
GC
First, it has to be pointed out that this Tour is far from over.
15th placed Leipheimer is only about 5.5 minutes down on the current
favorite to win this Tour, Landis. If Landis should have a bad day
in the Alpes like he did in the Dauphine on one of the current Tour
mountain courses, then Leipheimer would be only about 4.5 behind the
next foverite GC rider. That would be a long shot but possible.
Personally, I thing we should realistically consider down to about
Moreau in 10th place and only about 3'44" behind Landis as a long
shot for winning the Tour but I will discuss down to Leipheimer.
Pereiro - CEI (1st @ 0'00")
At first, I thought not to consider Pereiro for serious contention
on GC but, when I looked at his time trialing, I realized that he
didn't do so poorly. He only finished about 1'40" behind Landis and
the extra motivation of leading or being close to the lead going
into the last time trial could make more difference than that. Then
the big question becomes whether he can hang with the big boys for
the next three days in the mountains and remain in the lead or very
close to the lead. If he doesn't, he is out of contention. So far,
we have had bigger surprises in this Tour. Why not a nobody
domestique winning it? Hey, it would definitely be different.
Landis - PHO (2nd @ 1'29")
Landis is currently considered a race favorite in spite of the fact
that he lost a lot of time in the Dauphine on one of the courses he
will be racing on in the next three days. If he repeats that
performance, Menchov will be the rider to beat and he is one minute
closer to his serious rivals.
Of the top GC contenders, Landis was the best time trialist in the
first time trial but not by a lot. A very motivated rider can take
as much as a couple of minutes off his time with the right
motivation. But it must be recognized that Landis will have the same
motivation in the next time trial. Therefore, if he makes it to the
next time trial in the lead, then he should have a very good chance
of winning this Tour. His biggest test will be the next three days
or stages 15 through 17.
Menchov - RAB (4th @ 2'30")
At this time, Menchov is only 1'01" behind Landis, the race
favorite. On Stage 11's mountains, Menchov seemed to be one of the
stronger climbers doing most of the attacking on the last climb.
Since Landis wasn't also attacking, was he just barely hanging on
behind Menchov or was he just marking the other climbers testing
their legs? If Landis was barely hanging on, then, on L'Alp D'Huez,
Landis won't hang on and Menchov could become the man to beat.
On the other hand, the last climb in Stage 11 wasn't that steep and
Menchov might go backwards on L'Alpe D'Huez. If this happens and
Landis goes back door with him, then the race will suddenly be wide
open. That is a possibility in this Tour.
Also, Menchov only finished 41 seconds behind Landis in the first
time trial. That is close enough for an easy reversal with the right
motivation.
At this time, Menchov has to be considered the top challenger for
Landis on GC.
Evans - DVL (5th @ 2'46")
Evans is only 16 seconds behind Menchov on GC and has been racing
just behind him in the critical stages. He only finished 17 seconds
behind Menchov on Stage 11 and 5 seconds behind Menchov in the time
trial. He is virtually Menchov's shadow and could take the lead with
just a good day in the mountains or the last time trial. He is
definitely some one Landis has to watch very closely.
In 39 years of bike racing, I have seen a lot of riders come out of
third to win because first and second became so focused on each
other that they didn't pay enough attention to third and opened the
door for third to win the race. Evans could be that threatening
sleeper if not watched closely enough but he isn't alone.
Sastre - CSC (6th @ 3'21")
Only 35 seconds behind Evans on GC and 1'57" behind Landis, if Evans
is Menchov's shadow, then Sastre is Evan's shadow and has to be
watched just as closely. He finished with Evans in Stage 11 and only
22 seconds behind Evans on the time trial. He is a serious threat on
GC to everyone and one good day in the mountains, over the next
three days, could turn this race around for him.
Kloden - TMO (7th @ 3'58")
Kloden is a little deeper in the hole he has to dig out of with him
being another 37 seconds behind Sastre and 2'29" behind Landis but
this is not an impossible feat especially since TMO has repeatedly
proven to be the strongest of the GC teams. That team support and
good tactics could make the difference in the next three days.
Kloden is definitely not out of the race and also has to be watched.
Most likely he is racing for a podium spot but one good day in the
next three days could easily change that.
Moreau - A2R (10th @ 5'13")
Moreau is only about 1'15" behind Kloden but 3'44" behind Landis. He
just had his best year for time trialing finishing only 1'03" behind
Landis but will need to put at least 6 minutes into Landis in the
mountains to have a good chance of winning this Tour going into the
last time trial. That will be tough to do when you consider that he
lost 2'29" to Landis in Stage 11. Most likely, he is racing for the
top five but, if he continues to improve on his time trialing and
climbing, he could be a future Tour winner. It is possible that his
coach made the same mistake in training that Raul Alcala's coach did
in that he concentrated so much on improving his time trialing that
he lost climbing ability. It looks like this could have happened.
Popovych - DSC (11th @ 5'44")
I am only considering Popovych because he is DSC's best placed rider
and he has been considered by many to be a future great GC rider.
The trouble is that he finished over 6 minutes down on Stage 11 and
lost over 3 minutes in the time trial. I don't see him as being a
great GC rider unless he improves a lot in all areas. I realize that
this performance is with him being used as a domestique.
Fothen - GST (12th @ 5'46")
Fothen is a potential sleeper, especially for the long term. With
the right coach, he could win the Tour in a year or two. Right now
he is over 3 minutes down on GC behind Landis, which is possible to
win. Fothen only finished 41 seconds behind Landis in the time trial
and 3'06" behind him in Stage 11. He is very young and will probably
win the White Jersey this year. Keep an eye on him for the future.
Also, it is important to understand that he has been riding as a
domestique for Leipheimer and will probably continue to do so.
Leipheimer - GST (15th @ 7'08")
I am only considering Leipheimer because he is the team leader for
GST and did very well in Stage 11 beating Landis. He is over 5
minutes behind Landis but, in the Alpes, he could close most of that
in one good stage and Landis could have a bad day like he did in the
Dauphine. Leipheimer is so far down because he had a terrible ride
in the time trial loosing over 6 minutes and can do much better. It
shows how important one day can be in the Tour.
If Landis goes backwards and Leipheimer keeps climbing well and does
his previously well in the last time trial, he could make top three
to five but he is in a really deep hole. I think we need to watch
him for next year.
Points
McEwen - DVL (252 points)
There are not that many stages left in this Tour which will effect
the Points Title. It is my opinion that, if McEwen just stays on the
bike and finishes the Tour while staying close in the sprints, he
will win the Points Title. But, we has seen surprises galore in this
Tour and one crash causing McEwen to miss a finishing sprint in
Paris could change that.
Boonen - QSI (222 points)
The big race for the Points Title will be for a podium spot and
Boonen leads that race for second place but is close enough that one
bad sprint in Paris will put him out of the top three. He has to
keep riding hard to hold of Freire and Bennati.
Freire - RAB (207 points)
Freire is in an interesting position where he can charge to pass
Boonen but has to keep one eye over his shoulder at an ever charging
Bennati. One good sprint could land him second but a bad one will
lose him a spot on the podium at all.
Bennati - LAM (192 points)
Bennati is off the podium at this time and has nothing to lose by
charging hard to catch and pass Boonen and Freire for a podium spot.
He is a man with a mission and he needs to be watched carefully by
everyone ahead of him. He has been riding very aggressively and I
expect that to continue.
Zabel - MRM (172 points)
Zabel is pretty much racing for 5th place and I would not be
surprised to see this as his last trip to the Tour or even in pro
bike racing unless he accepts a position as team lead out rider. He
has had a great career and should be honored for his past
achievements.
KOM
De La Fuenta - SDV (80 points)
Expect to see the battle for this Title to heat up over the next
four stages in the mountains. De La Fuenta's lead shrank
significantly in Stage 14 when Rassmussen went from 4th place with
61 points to second place with 73 points. On the last cat 2 climb in
yesterday's stage, Rassmussen hit the front of the peloton looking
for more KOM points and De La Fuenta went looking for the back door
and found it. De La Fuenta could easily loose the lead for this
title in Stage 15. This fight is just beginning.
Rassmussen - RAB (73 points)
Rassmussen should be the favorite to win this title this year,
especially after winning it last year. He is riding very strong and
probably stronger in the mountains than anyone in the top four for
this title. Add to this that his team mate, Boogerd, is also rapidly
gaining ground in this title having just moved up to 61 points, only
one point out of third. This gives Rassmussen considerable potential
team leverage where he can relay attack the others with Boogerd to
wear them down and break their legs just like I teach in my e-book,
"A Better Way To Train".
Buuuuuuut, Rassmussen has a little problem which could cost him this
title. Most likely it won't but it can. His team mate, Menchov, is
the top contender to win the Tour GC Title and Rassmussen and
Boogerd will undoubtedly have to forgo taking points to help Menchov
try to beat Landis. Rassmussen already gave up an opportunity to get
more points that would have put him into the lead now when he had to
help Menchov at the end of Stage 11. He will likely have to do the
same over the next three days but I expect him to pick up enough
points to take the lead and win. Don't you just love bike chess? :-)
Dessel - A2R (62 points)
Dessel has been slowly sliding down from the top in this title and I
expect him to continue to do so. I think he is fighting to stay in
the top five.
Wegmann - GST (61 points)
Wegman has also been fighting very hard to move back up in this
title with little success and has been slowly loosing ground. I
think that rate of decline will accelerate over the next three days.
Boogerd - RAB (61 points)
Boogerd is climbing extremely strong and should easily pass Wegmann
and Dessel over the next three days in spite of the fact that he is
facing the same problem as Rassmussen by having to sacrifice points
to ride for his team mate, Menchov, on GC AND riding for Rassmussen
for the KOM Title. I think that another problem he will face will be
other climbers moving into the battle for this title over the next
three days. It won't take them long to accrue more than 70 points
with a number of HC climbs coming up in the next two days.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's Stage 15 is a short but deadly 187 km that finishes at
the top of the infamous L'Alpe D'Huez. I rate this as this year's
most significant GC mountain stage and we should know by the end who
will most likely win this Tour. There is one other HC climb and a
cat 2 climb before the finish on L'Alpe D'Huez. There are also two
road primes which shouldn't mean much.
Watch for an early break with a lot of attacking. Keep an eye on the
KOM riders and strong climbers trying to win a mountain stage,
especially on L'Alpe D'Huez.
