Pre-season Teams Analysis | Course Analysis | Riders & Teams | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | Stage 7 | Stage 8 | Stage 9 | Rest Day & Coach's Analysis | Stage 10 | Stage 11 | Stage 12 | Stage 13 | Stage 14 | Stage 15 | Rest Day & Coach's Analysis | Stage 16 | Stage 17 | Stage 18 | Stage 19 | Stage 20 | Stage 21 | Post Tour Analysis
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Course Analysis
The first and most important thing you should notice is that, in the
absence of Armstrong and l’Blanc, the Tour has returned to a more
traditional race format. This should be proof beyond any doubt that
they were changing and custom designing the race format for the Tour
in an effort to stop Lance from winning more Tours.
Second, they have taken out the team time trial to level the playing
field between strong GC riders on the weaker teams and the stronger
teams. Now your team cannot hand you a time advantage over any of
your competition. You have to earn every second you gain on your GC
competitors with your own legs.
This makes the Tour battle for GC more individual oriented but
always remember that it is still primarily a team sport. It is just
that, now, a strong GC on a weaker team still has a good chance of
winning the Tour.
Third, last year, in an effort to cause Lance to loose the Tour,
they put a huge emphasis on climbing especially earlier in the Tour.
They have diminished the emphasis on climbing and moved it back
towards the end of the Tour.
This means that some of the climbers who don’t time trial so well
and finished higher on GC than normal last year will have extreme
difficulty in making such high placings this year unless they really
work on improving their time trialing over the winter. Riders like
Rassmussen will be lucky to get a top 10 finish instead of a top
five unless they significantly improve their time trialing. The off
season is when you need to work on such things just like I teach in
my e-book.
There are only five high mountain stages with a number of mid level
mountain stages. Of those five stages, there are only three that are
significant GC stages with one surprise stage. It is important that
there are three mountain top finishes this year. It is also
important to realize that there are a greater percentage of longer
climbs though most are not as steep as prior climbs. The climbing
will be more attrition or endurance based than strength or power
based though climbing speed is always important. The rest of the
emphasis is on the two time trials.
It is also important to note the increased number of stages that are
200 or more kilometers in length. It is as if the organizers have
been reading my site and brought back the longer miles to return the
Tour to its former difficulty and diminish the effect of the
sprinters in the flatter stages. These increased distances will wear
the riders down a little more before the time trials and mountains.
This will be a pretty tough Tour.
Now, if they don’t go back to the older format they used for the
Combativity Title, then the sprinters will still rule on the flatter
stages and few stages will have breaks stay off to win. The old
format for the Combativity Title caused more riders and teams to
work harder for a break win and left fewer riders and teams in the
peloton to work just for sprint finishes. It was just after they
changed the format for the Combativity Title that the sprinters
began to really rule the flatter stages. That is why I have been
ranting about the fact that they should bring back the old format
for the Combativity Title. The old format will cause more aggressive
riding and make the Tour much more exciting again.
Returning to the old format for the Tour leaves us with some
potentially great battles for GC between riders like Basso,
Hincappie, Ullrich, and Vino along with opening the door for at
least one or two other riders who previously had to ride just for
the KOM Title and stage wins. This will definitely make the racing
more exciting and fun.
The Stages
Stage 10 from Cambo les Bains to Pau is the first high mountain
stage and is what I call a KOM stage because it best suits the race
for King of the Mountain or the Climber’s Title. At 193 km, it is a
pretty long stage but should have minimal effect on the GC Title.
Stage 11 from Tarbes to Val d’Aran Pla de Beret is a long 208 km and
is a mountain top finish making it the first GC mountain stage of
the Tour. It is here that the first sort following the first time
trial and first mountain sort will take place. There are three
climbs that are over 12 km long but three of those grades are not
super steep. The last climb to the top of the mountain is 13.5 km
long but the over all grade is only 5.4%. Something I would keep an
eye on is that there is a shorter climb of 8.4% just before the
final climb begins and you should watch out for the winning attack
to take place on this climb with the rider(s) trying to stay off on
the longer and less steep final climb. I expect this stage to put
the eventual Tour winner in the top three to five placings.
Stage 15 from Gap to L’Alpe d’Huez is only 187 km but I rate it as
the most significant mountain stage this year. There are only three
major climbs but they are all over 12 km long with the first climb
at 7% and 14.2 km long and the last climb to the finish being 13.9
km long and 7.9% or one of the steepest climbs in this Tour. By the
end of this stage, the eventual winner should be in the top two to
three places.
Stage 16 from Bourg d’Oisans to La Toussuire Les Sybelles is only
182 km long but I rate it as the second most significant mountain
stage for this Tour. It starts with a very long climb of 42.8 km
that is rated at only 4.5% but increases to about 6.7% for the top
of the climb increasing the wear on the legs. This is followed by
another long climb of 22.7 km but it is significantly tougher at 7%.
This climb should cause some early break action and will tire
already tiring legs even more. The second climb is followed by a
relatively short but steep climb of 5.8 km and 7% that will only
tire legs more and could be where some of the significant attacks
take place. The last climb to the mountain top is another long 18.4
km but is only on a grade of 6%. All total, the 182 km stage will
have about 90 km of long climbing to wear legs out.
Stage 17 is the last high mountain stage and would normally be
considered a KOM stage but there is a little hidden quality that
could set up a surprise attack for GC. It is a reasonably long stage
at 199 km with plenty of climbing but the last climb before the
really fast descent to the finish is long and tough. It is possibly
the toughest climb of the year with all things considered. It is an
11.7 km climb with an 8.7% grade and things will definitely break up
this late in the Tour. It is possible that a rider could get enough
time on this climb and hold it to the line to change GC. Keep an eye
out for this one. There will be attacks by the top GC riders and it
should be an interesting stage. It is little stages like this that
can bring interesting and exciting surprises in bike racing so that
you need to watch out for them or they will burn you. There is only
one flat stage between the last high mountain stage and the second
time trial where the final sort will take place.
Summary
I predict that the winner of this year’s Tour will be a very
balanced time trialist and climber and you will see more such
balanced riders in the top placings on GC this year. I don’t see any
single stage determining the winner of this Tour with a decisive
major blow to the competition but more of a steady consistency in
climbing and time trialing. With the longer and more shallow climbs,
team tactics will play a larger roll in the out come of the race. It
will be a fun and exciting Tour that we should all enjoy a lot.
See you at the Tour.
