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Riders & Teams

General Classification

Wow, what a mess. Once again the doping cheaters put a damper on things. I just wish they would find a way to get them all out of the sport so the real athletes could get to the top instead of the doping, poser winners.

As far as GC, this year’s race is almost anyone’s guess. Hincapie had a busted shoulder just a few months ago but seems to have recovered for the Tour. The question will be whether he has recovered enough to be dominating enough to easily win the Tour this year. He should still be considered the race favorite at this time but it may be tougher for him to win and he may not win by as much.

But let’s say Hincapie isn’t strong enough to win the Tour this year. Discovery now clearly has the strongest GC team in the Tour and could win this year’s Tour with at least two other riders, Azevedo and Popovych. I would not be surprised to see Discovery have two or more riders in the top three to five in Paris. They could easily dominate this Tour with the right tactics.

On the other hand, CSC is down one rider at the start of the race with a team of only 8 riders and the question is whether Riis will use Julich or Sastre as his team leader. I would think Julich and it could give Julich a chance to finish top three in the Tour this year. He would have to be a strong contender at this time.

T-Mobile is the weakest and most decimated team at the start this year with only 7 riders to start the Tour. If they lose just three more riders to attrition, they will be dropped from Team GC. I would think they would use Kloden as team leader but you don’t know until the race starts to develop.

Some teams lost in the doping scandal and others gained. I think AG2R made out OK from this and Moreau has a better than normal chance of making top five on GC. I don’t think he will be a serious GC contender for the Yellow Jersey.

Gerolsteiner made out like a bandit from the doping scandal. With his recent win in the Dauphine, Leipheimer has to be a podium contender and could, with the right tactics, win this Tour. But Leipheimer has to be considered a long shot to win and a good shot to place. This Tour’s GC battle could turn out to be between Hincapie and Leipheimer.

Menchov was another rider who benefited from the doping scandal. He also has a better chance at making top five or even the podium. I don’t see him pushing Hincapie for the win.

After last year’s performance and with top riders cleared from in front of him, a rider to watch would be Cadel Evans. He, Hincapie, and Leipheimer have to be considered favorites.
Landis was looking great earlier in the year but he didn’t seem too impressive in the recent Dauphine getting dropped by a number of riders on one of this year’s Tour climbs. But he could be on form by the time that climb shows up in this year’s Tour.

Cunego and Di Luca were a disappointment in the Giro but could have regained form by now. I would just keep an eye on them to make sure they don’t surprise you. If on form, they know how to win stage races.

Valverde has to be considered a top five favorite but I have not seen enough from him to make me see him in the serious battle for top three or first.

Iban Mayo showed some of the old form at Dauphine but I don’t think he can handle the pressure required to win this Tour. Just keep an eye on him because he can win if given a chance.

The last question for this Tour has to be how is Millar riding and will Saunier Duval ride for Millar or Simoni? Somoni did well enough in the Giro to warrant giving him a chance in the Tour but you have to know whether Millar is riding strong enough to be the better rider.

For my top six pick for this year, I have to submit the following reasonable guess:

1. Hincapie
2. Leipheimer
3. Evans
4. Julich
5. Valverde
6. Landis

One of the problems we will face is that riders who have spent most of the season racing for a team leader will suddenly find themselves riding as the team leader and there is little hope of evaluating how well they will ride in relation to the other team leaders. Anyway it goes, this should be an interesting and surprising race but could turn into a race for second, if Hincapie is back to form because I think he could dominate the current field in top form.

Obviously, the US riders may have made out the best from this doping scandal. It will be interesting to see if they can capitalize from it.

Of course, this is not factoring in crashes and illness.

Sprinters

I think the favorite for the Points Jersey this year has to be Hushovd with McEwen and Boonen pushing him hard from behind. To round out the top five, I think you have to include two very consistent members of the old guard, O’Grady and Zabel. Others could very easily show up and surprise us but I think it would be reasonably safe to say the top five should be close to:

1. Hushovd
2. McEwen
3. Boonen
4. O’Grady
5. Zabel

This will definitely be an interesting and surprising Tour now that formerly domestiques will have to rise to the challenge of being their teams’ leaders.

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