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Stage 1
Day 1 - Strasburg TT 7 Km
Stage Analysis
The most important things about today's prologue are that none of
the top GC riders lost significant time or crashed. All of the
riders I mentioned except for Mayo finished within 30 seconds of
Hincapie with most of them finishing within 21 seconds. Mayo's
finish of 32 seconds either shows no determination towards GC, as
his statements also show, or that he is off in his time trialing at
least a little.
It is interesting that Hincapie, Valverde, and Landis all finished
within 9 seconds of the win and that Evans, Moreau, Millar, Kloden,
and Julich all finished within 18 seconds of the win. The remaining
top GC riders you should watch finished as follows: Leipheimer @ 21,
Azevedo @ 24, and Simoni @ 25 seconds showing reasonable time
trialing.
From the Dauphine and this event, you could say that it may appear
that Landis' strength is time trialing and his weakness will be
climbing while Mayo's strength is climbing and his weakness is time
trialing. But you have to remember that things will change a little
between a very short TT like the prologue and a full scale TT. For
example, Moreau did surprisingly well in this TT, even beating
Millar, but may fair worse in a longer one where you have more time
to tire out but then again, maybe he is time trialing better which
would make him much more of a threat for GC.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow, we will begin the battle in the flats for the Points
Jersey and it will take a few days for this battle to fully
materialize. Tomorrow's stage is 184 km with only one cat 4 climb
and three road primes at 53, 137, and 175.5 km. With the first road
prime that far into the stage, most likely a controlling break will
be allowed to go up the road before the prime. The prime I would be
most concerned with is the one less than 9 km from the finish which
some one will almost certainly use for a last break attempt.
Most like, the controlling break will be brought back in for a pack
sprint. Watch for Hushovd and the other sprinters to begin their
battle for the Points Jersey.
Also, expect a little sprint or effort from some one on the one
small climb to get an easy grab on the KOM Jersey.
