Stage 12

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Stage 12

Day 13 Tarbes - Val d'Aran Pla de Beret 208 km

Analysis

Today, we found out who can climb. We found out who the top GC riders are and about where they should finish. At least we now know who is and is not in the battle.

As expected, with Hincapie being off form and loosing so much time in the time trial, he lost more time in the mountains. He dropped over 21 minutes today. As a matter of fact, his entire team imploded. There isn't one DSC rider in the top 10 on GC. George and company better start riding for some stage wins or something to save face. They even dropped out of the top 10 on team GC.

As expected, Dessel and Mercado dropped from the lead on GC and lost quite a bit of time today because they rode so hard the day before a GC mountain stage. There are only three riders who are not team leaders and strong GC riders in the top 10 on GC. I expect to see all three, Dessel, Rogers, and Mercado to continue their decent from the top GC ranks with one or two of them, maybe, getting a top ten on GC.

Leipheimer did very well today but he is digging out of such a deep hole that he is racing for a top ten spot and his team mate, Fothen, is better placed though Fothen did lose considerable time to Leipheimer today.

Congratulations to Landis for becoming only the fifth US rider to wear yellow. Right now, there are only about four GC riders close enough to give Landis a run for his money at winning this year's Tour and he beat all of them by at least 42 seconds in the first time trial and finished ahead of all but one of them in the first GC mountain stage. If he doesn't have a Dauphine day in the mountains, I think Menchov is the only rider in the group who should be able to beat Landis. Most likely the battle for first is between Landis and Menchov.

Evans, Sastre, and Kloden should put on a good battle for the last podium spot on GC, third spot, with Moreau, Fothen, Zubeldia, and Leipheimer racing for left overs. Leipheimer MIGHT be able to make top five on GC IF he can climb the way he did today for the rest of the Tour. We will see how this develops on Stage 15, the next GC mountain stage.

Nothing changed in the points race except that McEwen picked up 6 more points when the sprinter teams kept the breaks in until the first road prime, as I told you they would probably do.

There was a lot of early break action with large break efforts and one break getting as large as 20 riders. Finally, a pretty good sized pack made it up the road and got shredded on the first climb. It quickly dropped to only four riders and Rassmussen played it smart by riding to pick up the left over KOM points moving up into fourth on KOM. De La Fuenta and Wegmann put on a fun fight for KOM points with De La Fuenta finally winning that fight and taking the lead for KOM.

In the White the Jersey, Fothen all but secured that title today by taking a 12 minute lead. All he has to do is ride hard and smart for the rest of the Tour and he should win it.

The Team GC told the story today as TMO took the lead and GST and AG2R moved into second and third respectively. Kloden has the best team strength of the top riders on GC but can they use it to get him the win? DSC melted down showing no team strength moving out of the top 10. Note that CSC is also melting some what because they have now dropped to just six riders left on the team making it tougher to support Sastre on GC.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's stage is long at 211.5 km, especially for having just finished a tough stage in the mountains. There will be 4 KOM primes with a cat 2 KOM prime just 27 km into the stage. It is likely that the KOM teams will hold back the breaks until this prime. There should be a lot of attacking by a lot of riders early but I think this stage will finish in a bunch sprint because it is more down hill than up hill. I would watch for riders like Zabel, Bennati, and Hushovd but not rule out McEwen. A break could win this stage but I think the peloton will steam roll the course after the cat 2 climb. It should be a very fast stage.

There are only two road primes which shouldn't effect the stage much.

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