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Stage 13
Day 14 Luchon - Carcassonne 211 km
Analysis
Today was a flurry of attacking by riders and teams to win the stage
and pick up points for both the Points Title and the KOM Title. The
KOM teams tried to keep the breaks in until the first cat 2 climb
but were over whelmed by the size of the attacks and frequency so
they were forced to just commit their KOM riders to the attacks for
the first climb.
Every break had riders in it which were a threat on at least one
title so they were chased down repeatedly. The sprinters like
Bennati, McEwen, and Freire were constantly on the attack forcing
the peloton to chase hard for almost the entire stage. The average
speed for the stage winner was over 46 km/hr and I warned you it
would be a fast stage.
The surprise in today's racing was that so many well placed riders
for different titles kept getting into breaks forcing chases all day
long until they just finally let a break go with a threatening rider
in it saying, "enough chasing." This permitted a break to win the
stage.
Freire was the threatening rider in the last break and he moved from
third to second in the Points Title but Boonen and company were not
that concerned because there is a great stage for them tomorrow and
they know that freire being off the front so long today at such a
high race speed made him tired enough that he won't do too well in
tomorrow's stage whether it is won by a sprint or break. He is
likely to lose ground and fall back behind Boonen and maybe even
behind Bennati to fourth place.
Did you see DSC chase down one break to release Hincapie into
another break? That is very critical because it tells you that DSC
is now resigned to and concentrating on stage wins. Also note the
determination of George in staying off when the break he was in kept
breaking up and losing ground to the Peloton. He fought hard to keep
the break off and then they release attacked Popovych into the final
winning break. Popovych did a great job doing better than one third
of the work with four riders and still winning the stage. Watch DSC
continue going after stage wins.
It was great seeing the sprinter teams so involved in the break
action and either causing breaks to go or bridging to them. It
really made for some fun and exciting racing where you had to keep
turning to notes and standings to see what the different teams were
up to. It was great bike chess.
One of the most important things about today's stage was that there
were five DNF's. Two were from the DSC team which speaks loudly
about the team disappointment about doing so poorly on GC. Expect to
see DSC riders looking for other teams for next year and other DSC
riders and staff just getting the boot.
I would like to say that I keep pointing out that I told you
something would happen not to brag but to show you that, with just a
little information and the right knowledge that I provide in my
e-book, "A Better Way To Train", you can reasonably predict what
other riders and teams will do. Remember that my predictions come
from thousands of miles away and are determined by nothing more than
the news flashes on the Tour de France site. If I were at the race
in any capacity, my predictions would be much more accurate and
detailed. With the right knowledge and just a little information,
you can also better understand and predict the actions of the riders
and teams.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow is an extremely long stage with a lot of low mountains at
230 km with five cat 4 climbs. I expect this stage to be won by a
break and so will all the teams. Watch for a lot of attacking and
large break action early. I am sure that the teams don't want to
spend over half the stage chasing and will want to get a control
break up the road early. There are some nice little hills at the end
of the stage that are great for late stage attacks especially in a
really long stage. Watch for attacks on those hills in both the
break and peloton.
Watch for riders trying to win stages and sprinters like Boonen,
Zabel, O'Grady, Bennati, and maybe even McEwen to do some attacking
because this will be a great stage for sprinters to get in the
break. Also watch for the two former powerhouse teams of CSC and DSC
to continue trying to win stages.
There are still two flat to moderate climbing stages and a day of
rest before the next GC mountain stage on Stage 15. There should be
a lot of action in these stages with some KOM actions for Sunday's
stage.
