Stage 14

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Stage 14

Day 15 Beziers Mediterranee - Montelimar 231 km

Analysis

Today's stage went pretty much as expected with the tired pack permitting the break to stay off. They just rode too hard, for too long, and were too tired from yesterday to care. Plus the best placed rider in the break was Pereiro who started the day 28'50" down on Landis so no one really cared how much they won by. They used the stage as a form of rest day to recover.

Remember what I told you about riders like Voigt finishing stages behind the others so they would be permitted in breaks? It works.

The bad thing was PHO having to tow the peloton for most of such a very long day on such a hot day. You know they will be tired tomorrow. The TDF news flashes stated a surprise that PHO suddenly let the gap increase at the end of the stage so that they gave up the lead. I believe that PHO decided to let Pereiro take the lead so PHO could rest tomorrow and CEI had to tow all day. Besides, after riding really hard all day today in such heat, in tomorrow's stage with four KOM's and two of them cat 2's in the middle and end of the stage, I would expect Pereiro to get dropped and loose more time than he is leading by. Even if he doesn't, he will get dropped pretty badly in Stage 15 following Monday's rest day. Landis will be back in the lead by the end of either Stage 14 or Stage 15, probably Stage 14.

Remember that, yesterday, I told you that Freire would do so poorly in today's sprint that he would loose enough points to drop back below Boonen which is why Boonen wasn't worried about Freire moving ahead of him yesterday in the Points Title? As expected, Freire was so tired from riding hard for so long yesterday that he lost enough points to drop 15 points behind Boonen and almost get passed by Bennati in fourth place.

I have been telling you for years that bike racing, especially stage racing, is energy efficiency and energy management. What you do in today's stage will determine what you CAN do in every stage following today's stage. You have to know when to go hard and how hard to go. It is the most fundamental principle for Bike Chess. There are only so many pedal strokes anyone can take at the front of a peloton in a given period of time.

Notice that FDJ chased hard until Coyot dropped from the break? I am still trying to figure that one out. I have noticed that when Coyot is in a break, FDJ hits the front of the peloton and refuses to permit the break to go. It seems to be personal which is a stupid way to race.

Notice that Voigt was down in the prime sprints until the last KOM prime? The others were going for points and Voigt was saving his energy for the stage win. It paid off. Watch the other riders in the break with you to see how they are resting and expending energy. Use your head and save your legs.

Tomorrow

Stage 14 will be a short 180.5 km with four KOM primes. The first one is a cat 3 at 14 km so expect the KOM teams to try to keep the breaks in until after this prime. this late in the Tour, they may not succeed. There is another cat 3 KOM prime at about mid point in the stage and it is followed by two cat 2 KOM primes at mid and end of stage. The last cat 2 KOM prime is less than 10 km from the finish so expect to see heavy attacking on it for the stage win and placings in both the break and peloton.

There are also two road primes that should be of little consequence. I expect this stage to be won by a break; it is very likely. Watch the KOM riders and riders looking for a chance to win a stage. Watch for DSC to try to win Stage 14 with some one like Hincapie. The pack sprints at the end should be small and the peloton should be broken up at least some. The gaps may not be much between the groups but there will be gaps that could be just enough to cause changes on GC where riders are close to each other.

Now, using that information, you should know that, late in the race, you should try to stay towards the front and avoid getting caught behind a gap which will cost you time and positions. You would even want to have riders with your team leader to help bridge any gaps. Think, think, think; this is not a sport for stupid people.

Also tomorrow, watch for sprinters like Boonen, Hushovd, Bennati, O'Grady, and Zabel to try to make the break for the stage win. It should be a good stage for them. Watch for DVL to do some chasing if any of these sprinters make a break and McEwen isn't in the break.

Expect to see riders willing to ride harder in tomorrow's stage since the peloton took it relatively easy today, there will be a rest day following tomorrow, and the number of stages the Points riders and KOM riders will be racing for are getting fewer every day. The action for the breaks will increase every day until the finish because, each day, there will be one less chance to win a stage.

This Tour is already almost over with only one week left. Bummer, huh? :-)

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