Stage 19

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Stage 19

Day 21 Morzine Avoriaz - Macon 193 km

Analysis

Today was pretty much a stage winner's day. The KOM and Points titles are settled and, with a large controlling break off on a basically down hill course, there wasn't really any threat to anyone on GC. It was interesting to see LIQ bring a break most of the way back in to do an attack release of one of their riders to get him in the break only for the break to get caught. It was still a good move.

Finally, 15 riders made it up the road and, to my amazement, the SDV coach put his entire team on the front chasing to punish them for not getting a rider in the break with two stages left. Yeah, that sounds smart, trash your riders' tired legs as a form of punishment with a time trial and one road stage left. I will bet they will really feel like getting a rider in the break on Sunday, if they can still make it to the front of the pack, that is. Go figure.

Most of the fun was in the break with 50 km to go or less. They had a number of attacks, a few of which looked like they might go until the last three rider break finally made it.

The big thing that happened today was Freire dropping out of the race moving Zabel into Second 82 points behind McEwen for the Points Title and Hushovd into third. That race is definitely over now. Even the race for the Points Title got whacky this year with a top 3 rider dropping out of each of the last three stages. I have never seen such an up-side-down Tour.

Tomorrow

This should be the last significant GC stage for the 2006 Tour. It is the last time trial on a rolling course of 57 km. It is just a little down hill but has a few good rolling climbs which will separate out the tire legs from the very tired legs.

You have to understand that Landis could still suffer a melt down from his hard effort yesterday so don't be surprised if he suddenly blows on one of the hills or just gases out. I hope he won't but that was a huge TT through the mountains on a long stage and it had to take something out of him which he can't put back. He may not totally fry but may loose time because of it. We will see.

I did a brief analysis assuming the riders will do close to as well as they did in the first time trial. Landis only beat Pereiro by 1'40", Pereiro is 30" ahead of Landis, and Pereiro should be much more motivated to go fast tomorrow but so will Landis. Landis also only beat Sastre by 1'10", is 18" down on him, and they will be riding at light speed. This race could easily be won by less than 10 seconds and even be won on Sunday by taking a road prime time bonus.

Landis was the fastest rider of the current top ten on GC in the first time trial and should be the favorite but we won't put any money on it after what has happened in this Tour so far. Buuut, I will take a calculated guess at the GC for tomorrow following the time trial knowing that, based on what has transpired to date, it could all blow apart with O'Grady winning the Tour. This analysis is assuming Landis' will have adequately recovered from his romp in the mountains yesterday.

Rider          TT             GC

Landis        0'00"          0'00"
Sastre        1'10"            50"
Pereiro        1'40"          1'10"
Kloden          42"          2'40"
Evans           48"          3'20"
Menchov       43"          4'30"

But the way this Tour has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to look more like:

Queen Elizabeth
George Bush
Kermit the Frog
Ms Piggy
Fonzy

What a race.

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