Pre-season Teams Analysis

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Pre-season Teams Analysis

This preseason teams analysis is meant to provide you with a better understanding of team structuring and give you some things to watch for the next few months of this season. You need to watch for developing strengths and weaknesses. This analysis is aimed, primarily, at the Tour de France but includes a little information for most of the season.

GC Teams

CSC
The team everyone will be watching most this year for the GC win in the Tour will be CSC with Basso as their team leader. Basso will be going for both the win in the Giro and Tour and, if he gets both wins, watch all the CSC riders and most of the Italians ride for him at the World Road Championships for the coveted triple crown of cycling. Basso has to be considered the favorite for both, even if he has not improved over last year and you should expect that Riis has been working to make Basso even stronger than last year. Riis is very good at that so it would be stupid to not race to beat a stronger Basso.

Discovery
I expect the best battle to come from Discovery with George Hincapie, if he just remains as strong as he rode last year. I would also expect to see him ride even stronger this year because he will be training specially to win the Tour and will ride it to win. This should make a great battle for first place and it will be fun to watch a long time and faithful domestique win the Tour. It is also important to note that he will also be coached by Lance Armstrong.

T-Mobile
Ullrich is stated to be a new rider for this year but I still would place him as being third, at best, for this Tour. If he has made the right improvements, he could surprise everyone but he has been far too consistent without making the right improvements in his racing under the same coach for too many years. I personally think he will lead the race for a close third but it will be a very close third and possibly second because climbing has much less of an effect on GC this year than it has had in past years. As a matter of fact, this could put Ullrich in a better race for first than he has been in since he won the Tour so you have to keep an eye on him.

Liberty
With Vinokourov, Liberty has the best chance of trying to win the Tour since the year Belokie was doing so well and crashed. It will be interesting to see how well Vino does with a team behind him instead of working against him. It is also important to note that the decreased emphasis on climbing and increased emphasis on time trialing will work in his favor for being in the hunt for a Tour win even though both Basso and Hincapie beat him soundly in at least one time trial last year. Just having this realistic chance and a team behind him could be enough to push Vino to the top of the podium for the Yellow Jersey this year.

This will be a great battle to watch and could be the first four man race in a long time. It will be very exciting this year with a lot of potential. It has been a long time since four or more riders had this much potential for winning the same Tour. We would have to go back to the days of Hinault, Roache, LeMond, Fignon, and Anderson.

Gerolsteiner
We must keep a close eye on Leipheimer just because he both did so well and improved so much last year for the Tour. If he made the right improvements since last year, he could be a party crasher and win this Tour. I have to consider him a dark horse but a very good one with a lot of potential for this year. It will be interesting to see how well Leipheimer does with this old format. We will see.

AG2R
They are putting their hopes in Mancebo and Moreau because they did so well in last year’s Tour. You have to remember that Moreau did so well because there was just so very much climbing and should not fair as well this year. I have to say, though, that Mancebo has been improving steadily for years and, if he has improved on his time trialing considerably this year, he could be a dark horse for this Tour. Both of these riders would have to have improved on their time trialing to be considered a realistic threat for even the top five though. I believe that Mancebo will be racing for the top five and Moreau will be racing for KOM even though there will be only one or two true KOM stages this year. Most likely, the KOM riders will have to win that title in one or two of the GC climbing stages because the only true KOM stage has only three major climbs in it. This means that the KOM battle could easily have a much greater effect on the Yellow Jersey battle and that the same rider could easily win both titles. Watch for this.

Lampre
It has been stated that Cunego will be riding to win both the Giro and Tour with a major emphasis on the Tour. He has always been a major contender for the Giro but we will see how well he does in this year’s Tour. I have to consider him a dark horse to watch.

GC Summary

I believe that most of the battle will be between Basso, Hincapie, Ullrich, and Vino with an improving and strong dark horse in Leipheimer followed by a couple of good long shots with Mancebo and Cunego. The decreased emphasis on climbing aids Ullrich, Vino, and Leipheimer while hurting Mancebo. You have to remember that both Basso and Hincapie showed they could ride the time trial as well and even better than Ullrich, Vino, and Leipheimer so the increased emphasis on time trial could help them as well. It should be a strong, close, and well fought race with Basso and Hincapie being the front runners for the title.

Sprinting

Credit Agricole
We must consider a steadily improving Thor Hushovd to be the man to watch for defending his win for the Points Title in this year’s Tour. It has been a long time since anyone has repeated and I think Hushovd is the man who could do that. He has to be considered the favorite.

Milram
I have to put a lot of eye watching towards the brand new Points team of Petacchi and Zabel. Their combined effort will be interesting to watch and will pose a threat to Hushovd. Zabel has more experience than any of the other top Points contenders and Petacchi is at the top of his game. The big question here is, how well will this team workout?

Davitamon
We must keep a close eye on McEwen for the Points Title because he has shown he knows how to win it. With so very few real climbing stages, this Tour will spend a lot of time and energy on this battle. This could easily work in the favor of riders like McEwen because it will give him more chances to win than last year’s format.

Quick Step
You just have to consider a really great rider like Boonen who is so great at sprinting and climbing when it comes to this year’s Points Title. He should show as one of the strong contenders with his team mate, Bettini, doing some really great efforts to win stages. The latter efforts could help Boonen and the team in racing for the Points Title because, if Bettini is off the pack in major breaks, Quick Step won’t have to use as much energy chasing in breaks and will have more energy for leading out Boonen. Watch these guys as a possible teamed pair or one-two punch.

CSC
With Stuart O’Grady on their team, CSC has to be considered at least a hopeful for the Points Title this year. Will they let the chase for the Points Title interfere with their chase for the Yellow Jersey or learn to use the chase for the Points Title to help them win the Tour? You have to keep in mind that O’Grady’s best chances for winning the Points Title are in a race with more climbing because he is only a very good sprinter but is very good at climbing for a sprinter. This will be interesting to watch.

Saunier
Saunier has a new and developing sprinter who could join in for the battle for the Points Title. Paliarini is considered some one to watch but he will be a dark horse at best and long shot at worst. He is one of those riders you just watch out the corner of your eye and react if he begins to join the battle.

Sprint Summary

This could be the strongest and most closely contested Points Title in a long time. Hushovd has to be considered the man to beat but the Petacchi and Zabel team, along with Boonen, have to be that threat. It should be a very close and tactical battle which could open up and permit some one like O’Grady to turn over the apple cart. With more stages favoring the Points Title this year, it will provide more opportunities for taking the title.

Giro

CSC
I decided to include a little analysis for these teams for the Giro GC this year because there are at least two GC riders who are currently planning on riding both super tours, as I predicted would begin to happen if Basso did well in both last year. He did, so now more riders are considering riding both and cycling may get back to the fun of the old days when riders actually trained to win more than one race a year. Basso has to be considered a strong favorite for this year’s Giro because he is such a great GC rider and Riis has shown he can coach more than one race a year. He may be the race favorite after what we saw last year.

Discovery
Most will consider defending champion, Savoldelli to be the man to beat but I think it will be tougher for him to defend this title this year than it was for him to win it last year. It will be a very good race and Savoldelli will definitely be in the hunt for the win.

Lampre
With Cunego saying he will ride both tours, you have to consider him to be both a favorite for the Giro and a dark horse to win both Tours. It will be interesting to see how well he does in the Tour after racing the Giro. This year could be twice the fun.

Liquigas
Of course, you have to watch the rapidly improving Di Luca in this year’s Giro, especially after last years ride. He could easily turn out to be the man to spoil Basso’s dreams of winning both super tours in one season and taking cycling’s triple crown. Keep and eye on this man for this year and the future. He is doing very well.

Giro Summary

Last year, Savoldelli squeaked through to take the win with some good, consistent riding in the mountains. This year, we hope Basso won’t get sick and will provide even more of a challenge for everyone. It really looks like Basso has to be the one to beat with Savoldelli, De Luca, and Cunego giving him a really great and close battle. With two of the top contenders riding both super tours, this season should be twice as much fun.

Coach Carl Cantrell
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